United States says closely evaluating Pakistan seeking International Monetary Fund bailout

The US-China trade war will hobble global growth, the International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday, cutting its forecast for this year and next and predicting that "everyone is going to suffer" from a clash between the world's two biggest economies.

The global finance agency dropped its projection for world economic growth by two-tenths of a percentage point for both 2018 and 2019 to 3.7 percent, the first time it had trimmed its economic outlook in more than two years.

The IMF predicted United Kingdom growth to would be 1.4% in 2018, rising to 1.5% in 2019, while the eurozone 2018 growth forecast was cut to 2.0% from 2.2%.

The projection was raised from 3.8 percent in a forecast released in April, but is still under the government's official target for 4.3 percent growth.

Addressing a news conference at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bali, the IMF's Maurice Obstfeld cautioned that increased Chinese involvement in Pakistan's economy could bring both benefits and risks.

The Chinese central bank will focus on the domestic economy when making adjustments to its monetary policy, Yi also said, indicating that the PBOC's decision-making will be influenced less than before by changes in the external environment such as recent interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The US will also see its growth "decline" once its fiscal stimulus, delivered through wide-ranging tax cuts "goes into reverse" according to Mr Obstfeld. It estimates global output could fall by more than 0.8 per cent in 2020 and remain 0.4 per cent below its trend line over the long term, in a scenario where US President Trump follows through on all his threats, including global duties on cars.

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In September, the US implemented another round of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, which were met with countermeasures out of Beijing on $60 billion worth of USA goods.

After 18 months consecutive drop in the country's inflation rate from about 15.98 per cent in 2016, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data for August 2018 showed a marginal increase from about 11.14 per cent in July to the current 11.23 per cent.

Global trade tensions would also have a bearing on the eurozone's 2018 growth forecast, which was cut to 2 percent from 2.2 percent previously.

"Growth performance varies, however, across countries".

This is still lower than the global economic growth of 3.7 percent.

"Sustained trade tensions could further undermine confidence, hurt financial markets, disrupt supply chains, and discourage investment and trade", the report said.

"Turmoil already seen in some emerging market economies could worsen, with negative spillovers to Asia through reduced capital flows and higher funding costs", it said.

(Copyright © 2015. All Rights Reserved.)
 
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